The Black Swan author’s latest, The Bed of Procrustes, is a book of aphorisms. Nassim Taleb will now take your questions.
Video Rating: 4 / 5
10 Questions for Nassim Taleb
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Jan•
22•12
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You guys are all wrong. A black swan is a bird with black feathers. gees.
@86Xforce I agree.It’s taught like religious doctrine.When you discuss it with
anyone all you get is anger,which to me indicates ‘belief’ that has been
incorporated into the mind, BUT, lacks truth.The anger comes from the
physical consequences of removing a delusion that’s necessary for a
mental paradigm to operate.Alexander Lowen believes that depression
is a consequence of unconscious removal of a delusion from
the mind.
Evolution replaces religion & has same function for most people.
lol @ the amorality of the question
“Is possible to profit from black swans?”
@maxmax655
Foreseeable with hindsight?
So, how long have you suffered from autism?
@echinoidea Evolution does indeed benefit from randomness in the sense that it is randomness at molecular level that creates diversity in DNA and so forth. I like the way he abstained from mentioning that he has made a lot of money betting on negative black swans though lol
@echinoidea so freaking true … he is often talking about psydo scientists using language in the wrong way … and ends up making the same mistake ..
He obviously doesn’t understand evolution
That was only 5 questions.
@maxmax655 your generalizing – which I think is dangerous – define a specific example…. Each black swan is completely different
All previous commentators defined a Black Swan incorrectly. A black swan is a rare event unforeseen by a group of people who will be widely affected by it. That is it.
@TheChineseEmpire More appropriate question would be would who foresaw the earthquake that precipitated it. No earthquake, the Fukushima plant is not an issue.
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Name one person that saw the Fukushima disaster?
@fos4242 Black Swans are “foreseeable” to the same extent that you can foresee your death- you know you’re going to die, sure, but when, and how?
@maxmax655 Black swans are foreseeable to an extent, but the point is that they are not foreseeable with inductive and statistical methods, thus making it impossible to use statistical models to map them in the future.
@maxmax655 Yeah, that is the whole point of the Black Swan.
a definition of black swan: if i post a picture as a comment here, i mean not the link to a picture, but a picture itself, that would be a black swan on youtube
@maxmax655 actually, your definition of black swan is entirely incorrect – read the black swan 2nd edition. 9/11 was foreseeable to the hijackers (nassim uses this example in the book), even though it wasn’t necessarily foreseeable to the rest of the population. black swans can be either foreseeable or unforeseeable because the whole concept of a black swan rests on an individual’s subjective perception and knowledge. time’s definition was equally poor and erroneous.
@maxmax655 taleb was probably spewing when he went home and watched it lol
We unfortunately as a society (western civilization) haven’t learned anything from this global shock and consequent crisis. Powerful people form WS, City and their respective regulatory agencies, bought politicians still do not have any incentive to change anything. So, business as usual will continue, accumulating additional risks in the global system burdened with over-debtness until next (even bigger) global shock or a cascade of locally/regionally devastating shocks. It’s sad but true.
I believe Black Swan refers to an apparently unlikely event that the ‘status quo’ does not foresee. There will always be individuals who will see things more clearly, such as Taleb and others who foresaw the meltdown.
Your definition of black swan is wrong. Black swans are completely unforeseeable, but appear to have been foreseeable with hindsight.
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@sal0212 Mr. T., pity the fool. Got it, but it took almost a minute. Ok, next time it will be N.T., or Nassim.